Project Introduction
To help understand how and why COVID-19 disrupted the agricultural supply chain the ways it did, and to help prevent similar things from happening in the future, Jacobs will lead a newly-funded USDA study. The project, “Agricultural Supply Chain Disruptions: Costs and Mitigation Strategies to Enhance Resiliency of Ag Supply Chains” aims to enhance the resiliency of the beef, pork, dairy, and egg supply chains in the Midwest in the face of future disruptions and was recently awarded a two-year, $458,000 National Institute of Food and Agriculture COVID-19 Rapid Response Program grant. The grant is part of more than $14 million in USDA funding announced to help study the most critical issues facing consumers during the pandemic.
Project Highlights
Media
Media exposure 1
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Working Papers
Working paper 3
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Journal Articles
Article 1
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Beef
Pork
Egg
578 Heady Hall
518 Farm House Lane
Ames, Iowa 50011-1054
Phone: 515-294-1183
Fax: 515-294-6336
Email
Keri L. Jacobs
College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources
216 Mumford Hall
University of Missouri
Columbia, MO 65211
Email: keri.jacobs@missouri.edu
567 Heady Hall
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011-1054
Phone: 515-294-2840
Email: yongjiej@iastate.edu
Futures
Definition from Wiki:
In finance, a futures contract (sometimes called a futures) is a standardized legal contract to buy or sell something at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future, between parties not yet known to each other.
Basis
Definition from investopedia:
In the futures market, basis represents the difference between the cash price of the commodity and the futures price of that commodity.
Negotiated Purchase - Swine/Hog
Definition from USDA AMS:
A cash or spot market purchase by a packer of livestock from a producer under which the base price for the livestock is determined by seller-buyer interaction and agreement on a delivery day. The livestock must be scheduled for delivery to the packer not more than 14 days after the date on which the livestock are committed to the packer.
Swine or pork market formula - Swine/Hog
Definition from USDA AMS:
A purchase of swine by a packer in which the pricing mechanism is a formula price based on a market for swine, pork, or a pork product, other than a futures or options contract for swine, pork, or a pork product.
Other market formula - Swine/Hog
Definition from USDA AMS:
A purchase of swine by a packer in which the pricing mechanism is a formula price based on any market other than the market for swine, pork, or a pork product. This includes a formula purchase in a case which the price formula is based on one or more futures or options contracts.
Other purchase arrangement - Swine/Hog
Definition from USDA AMS:
A purchase of swine by a packer that is not a negotiated purchase, swine or pork market formula purchase, negotiated formula pruchase, or other market formula purchase; and does not involve packer-owned swine.
Packer sold - Swine/Hog
Definition from USDA AMS:
A purchase of Swine that are owned by a packer (including a subsidiary or affiliate of the packer) for more than 14 days immediately before sale for slaughter; and sold for slaughter to another packer.
Formula - Cattle
Definition from USDA AMS:
The advance commitment of cattle for slaughter by any means other than negotiated, negotiated grid, or forward contract. Formulas use a method of calculating price in which the price may often not be known at a future date.
Negotiated - Cattle
Definition from USDA AMS:
Cash or spot market purchase where the price is determined through buyer-seller interaction. The price is known at the time the deal is struck and delivery may be up to 30 days
Negotiated Grid - Cattle
Definition from USDA AMS:
The base price is negotiated between buyer and seller and is known at the time the deal is struck and delivery is usually expected within 14 days. However, the final net price will be determined by applying a series of premiums and discounts after slaughter based on carcass performance. The base is reported when established. The net is reported after slaughter and grading occurs.
Forward Contract - Cattle
Definition from USDA AMS:
An agreement for the purchase of cattle, executed in advance of slaughter, under which the base price is established by reference to prices quoted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Table eggs
Definition from USDA:
These eggs are produced for consumption and are what you will find sold at the grocery store.
- This tool visualizes the difference between hog sale prices and futures prices for the next expiring CME Live Hog Futures contract.
- The four panels correspond to four major sale types for producer-sold hogs, as classified by the USDA.
- Within each panel:
- Solid (———) lines display the difference between hog sale prices and futures prices for the next expiring CME Live Hog Futures contract
- Dashed (- - - -) lines display the average difference between hog sale prices and futures prices for the prior three years.
- The x-axis measures the number of days remaining until the current contract expires.
- The y-axis measures the difference between sale price and futures price, measured in dollars per hundredweight.
- This tool visualizes the difference between hog sale prices and futures prices for the next expiring CME Live Hog Futures contract.
- The four panels correspond to four major sale types for producer-sold hogs, as classified by the USDA.
- Within each panel:
- Solid (———) lines display the difference between hog sale prices and futures prices for the next expiring CME Live Hog Futures contract
- Dashed (- - - -) lines display the average difference between hog sale prices and futures prices for the prior three years.
- The x-axis measures the number of days remaining until the current contract expires.
- The y-axis measures the difference between sale price and futures price, measured in dollars per hundredweight.
- Select different Future from the dropdown list of "Available Futures"
- Select reference years to compare with our one-year ahead prediction
- See Pork packing: Just what is capacity?
- Actual weekly hog slaughter numbers come from Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection (SJ_LS711), queried via USDA/NASS Quick Stats.
- Predicted weekly slaughter numbers in 2022 and 2023 are derived from historical slaughter numbers togeter with inventory information from Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
- There are four graphs describing the egg market conditions.
- Figure 1 displays the relationship between the price of eggs and the ratio of table eggs to total eggs in the industry.
- Figure 2 displays the seasonal pattern within the egg ratio. This figure alone with Figure 3 and Figure 4 contains
- black line is the 5-year average pattern for the variable.
- blue line is last year's pattern.
- orange line is the projected pattern based on January data and 5-year average.
- red line is the actural data.
- Figure 3 displays the monthly swings within the table egg supply.
- Figure 4 displays the monthly price for per dozen table eggs.
- Click Available Dates button to choose report dates other than three recent dates
| Head Count Sum | Avg Net Price | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date ↓ | Negotiated | Swine or Pork Market Formula | Other Formula | Other Purchase Arrangement | Packer Sold | Negotiated | Swine or Pork Market Formula | Other Formula | Other Purchase Arrangement | Packer Sold |
- Click Radio Button to select Dressed or Live
- Click Available Weeks button to choose report weeks other than three recent weeks
| Dressed Head Count Sum | Dressed Avg Net Price | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week ↓ | Formula | Negotiated | Negotiated Grid | Forward Contract | Formula | Negotiated | Negotiated Grid | Forward Contract |