SWAT Literature Database for Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Title:Assessment of the combined effects of threshold selection and parameter estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution with applications to flood frequency analysis 
Authors:Gharib, A., E.G.R. Davies, G.G. Goss and M. Faramarzi 
Article ID:692 
URL (non-DOI journals): 
Broad Application Category:hydrologic only 
Primary Application Category:flood impacts or conveyances 
Secondary Application Category:hydrologic assessment 
Watershed Description:47 drainage areas within the 661,000 km^2 Province of Alberta, Canada. 
Calibration Summary: 
Validation Summary: 
General Comments: 
Abstract:Floods are costly natural disasters that are projected to increase in severity and frequency into the future. Exceedances over a high threshold and analysis of their distributions, as determined through the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method and approximated by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), respectively, are widely used for flood frequency analysis. This study investigates the combined effects of threshold selection and GPD parameter estimation on the accuracy of flood quantile estimates, and develops a new, widely-applicable framework that significantly improves the accuracy of flood quantile estimations. First, the performance of several parameter estimators (i.e., Maximum Likelihood; Probability Weighted Moments; Maximum Goodness of Fit; Likelihood Moment; Modified Likelihood Moment; and Nonlinear Weighted Least Square Error) for the GPD was compared through Monte Carlo simulation. Then, a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the province of Alberta, Canada, was used to reproduce daily streamflow series for 47 watersheds distributed across the province, and the POT was applied to each. The Goodness of Fit for the resulting flood frequency models was measured by the upper tail Anderson-Darling (AD) test and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and demonstrated improvements for more than one-third of stations by averages of 65% (AD) and 47% (RMSE), respectively. 
Keywords:peak over threshold (POT); extreme value analysis; flood; extreme hydrological events; flood quantiles