Title: | Multi-model ensemble approaches to assessment of effects of local climate change on water resources of the Hotan River Basin in Xinjiang, China |
Authors: | Luo, M., F. Meng, T. Liu, Y. Duan, A. Frankl, A. Kurban and P. De Maeyer |
Year: | 2017 |
Journal: | Water |
Volume (Issue): | 9(8) |
Pages: | |
Article ID: | 584 |
DOI: | 10.3390/w9080584 |
URL (non-DOI journals): | |
Model: | SWAT |
Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
Primary Application Category: | model and/or data comparison |
Secondary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
Watershed Description: | Hotan River, a tributary of the Tarim River located in Xinjiang Province in northwest China. |
Calibration Summary: | |
Validation Summary: | |
General Comments: | |
Abstract: | The effects of global climate change threaten the availability of water resources worldwide
and modify their tempo-spatial pattern. Properly quantifying the possible effects of climate change on
water resources under different hydrological models is a great challenge in ungauged alpine regions.
By using remote sensing data to support established models, this study aimed to reveal the effects
of climate change using two models of hydrological processes including total water resources, peak
flows, evapotranspiration, snowmelt and snow accumulation in the ungauged Hotan River Basin
under future representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results revealed that stream
flow was much more sensitive to temperature variation than precipitation change and increased by
0.9–10.0% according to MIKE SHE or 6.5–10.5% according to SWAT. Increased evapotranspiration
was similar for both models with a range of 7.6–31.3%. The snow-covered area shrank from 32.5%
to 11.9% between the elevations of 4200–6400 m, respectively, and snow accumulation increased
when the elevation exceeded 6400 m above sea level (asl). The results also suggested that the fully
distributed and semi-distributed structures of these two models strongly influenced the responses
to climate change. The study proposes a practical approach to assess the climate change effect in
ungauged regions. |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | general circulation models; climate change; hydrologic model; snow storage; Hotan River Basin |