| Title: | Terrestrial sediment yield projection under the bias-corrected nonstationary scenarios with hydrologic extremes |
| Authors: | Moon, S. and B. Kang |
| Year: | 2016 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 8(10) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 433 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w8100433 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic and pollutant |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | sediment loss and transport |
| Watershed Description: | 928.9 km^2 Hapcheon Dam drainage area, located in South Gyeongsang Province, South Korea. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | For reliable prediction of sediment yield in a watershed, fine-scale projections for
hydro-climate components were first obtained using the statistical bias correction and downscaling
scheme based on the combination of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Nonstationary Quantile
Mapping (NSQM) and Stochastic Typhoon Synthesis (STS) sub-modules. Successively, the hydrologic
runoff and sediment yield from the land surfaces were predicted through the long-term continuous
watershed model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), using the bias-corrected and downscaled
Regional Climate Model (RCM) output under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s
(IPCC’s) A1B climate change scenario. The incremental improvement of the combined downscaling
process was evaluated successfully during the baseline period, which provides projected confidence
for the simulated future scenario. The realistic simulation of sediment yield is closely related to the
rainfall event with high intensity and frequency. During the long-term future period, the Coefficient
of River Regime (CORR) reaches 353.9 (27.2% increase with respect to baseline). The projection for
annual precipitation by 2040 and 2100 is a 25.7% and a 57.2% increase with respect to the baseline
period, respectively. In particular, the increasing CORR rate (33.4% and 72.5%) during the flood
season is much higher than that for the annual total amount. However, the sediment yield is expected
to increase by 27.4% and 121.2% during the same periods, which exhibits steeper trends than the
hydrologic runoff. The June, July, August (JJA) season occupies 83.0% annual total sediment yield
during the baseline period, which is similar during the projection period. The relative change of
sediment yield is 1.9-times higher than that of dam inflows. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | NSQM; downscaling; SWAT; sediment |