| Title: | Data assimilation for streamflow forecasting: State–parameter assimilation versus output assimilation |
| Authors: | Sun, L., O. Seidou and I. Nistor |
| Year: | 2016 |
| Journal: | Journal of Hydrologic Engineering |
| Volume (Issue): | 22(3) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | |
| DOI: | 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001475 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | calibration, sensitivity, and/or uncertainty analysis |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 420,456 km^2 Senegal River sub-watershed, which captures most of the major eastern half of the system that drains parts of southwest Mauritania, western Mali, northeast Gumoa and western Senegal. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | This paper compares two data assimilation methods: state–parameter assimilation and output assimilation in improving streamflow
forecasting using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The state–parameter assimilation is performed by updating the
stored water content and soil curve number with the extended Kalman filter (EKF); the output assimilation is carried out by updating the
model output errors with autoregressive (AR) models. The performances of the two data assimilation techniques are compared for a dry year
and a wet year, and it is found that whereas both methods significantly improve forecasting accuracy, their performances are influenced by
the hydrological regime of the particular year. During the wet year, the average root-mean-square error (RMSE) for seven days forecasts is
improved from 670.46 to 420.42 m3=s when output assimilation is used, and to 367.60 m3=s when state–parameter assimilation is used. The
Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) is improved from 0.63 to 0.85 and 0.88, respectively; the mean error (ME) is improved from
−375.83 m3=s to −131.68 m3=s and −129.11 m3=s, respectively. For shorter forecast leads (1–4 days), the state–parameter assimilation
outperforms output assimilation in both dry and wet years. For longer forecast leads (5–7 days), the output assimilation could provide better
results in the wet year. A hybrid method that combines state–parameter assimilation and output assimilation performs very well in both
dry and wet years according to all three indicators. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Data assimilation; Streamflow forecast; Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); Extended Kalman filter; Autoregressive
model. |