| Title: | Modeling impact of climate change on surface water availability using SWAT model in a semi-arid basin: Case of El Kalb River, Lebanon |
| Authors: | Saade, J., M. Atieh, S. Ghanimeh and G. Golmohammadi |
| Year: | 2021 |
| Journal: | Hydrology |
| Volume (Issue): | 8(3) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 134 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/hydrology8030134 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | calibration, sensitivity, and/or uncertainty analysis |
| Watershed Description: | 252 km^2 El Kalb River, located in the Mount Lebanon Administrative Governate in west central Lebanon. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is crucial for depicting the vulnerability of water resources and for identifying proper adaptation measures. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the impact of climate change on the streamflow of El Kalb river, a major perennial river in Lebanon. The model performance was tested for monthly flow at two stations under a nine-year calibration period (2003–2011) and a four-year validation period (2012–2015). The model results indicated satisfactory precision in fitting observed and simulated flow using various acceptable statistical indices. Future projections of climate change were obtained for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). The model indicated that the average annual discharge of El Kalb River in the near future (2021–2040) will decrease by around 28–29% under the three RCP scenarios. End-of-century projections (2081–2100) indicated that the flow will decrease by 23%, 28%, and 45% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | soil and water assessment tool (SWAT); hydrological modeling; calibration and validation; climate change |