| Title: | Quantitative attribution of runoff attenuation to climate change and human activity in typical mountainous areas: An enlightenment to water resource sustainable utilization and management in north China |
| Authors: | Jiao, Y., J. Liu, C. Li, W. Wang, F. Yu and Y. Wang |
| Year: | 2020 |
| Journal: | Sustainability |
| Volume (Issue): | 12(24) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 10395 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/su122410395 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change and land use change |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | Luan River, Chaoba River and Yongding River (referred to as “Mountainous Basins”), tributaries of the Haihe River located in northeast China. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | The influence of climate change and human activities on hydrological elements has
increased along with increasing dependence on water resources. Therefore, quantitative attribution
of hydrological elements has received wide attention. In this study, the double mass curve (DMC) is
used to assess the abrupt change point of the hydrological data series, based on which the periods
with/without large-scale human activities causing runoff attenuation are separated. The land use
transition matrix is then employed to analyze the land use types at different historical stages, and the
sensitivities of the runoff attenuation to different land use/cover change (LUCC) categories are
quantified. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model that considers the underlying surface
is constructed with six designed scenarios of different climate and LUCC conditions. Taking three
typical mountainous basins in North China as the study area, the quantitative contributions of climate
change and human activities to the water resources are identified. The results of the study have
brought enlightenment to the water resource sustainable utilization and management in North China,
and the methodologies can be transferred to runoff attribution analysis in water shortage areas. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | runoff attenuation; quantitative attribution analysis; climate change; LUCC; water resources management; North China |