SWAT Literature Database for Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Title:Modeling the impacts of climate change on crop yield and irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA 
Authors:Paul, M., S. Dangol, V. Kholodovsky, A.R. Sapkota, M. Negahban-Azar and S. Lansing 
Year:2020 
Journal:Water 
Volume (Issue):8(12) 
Pages: 
Article ID:139 
DOI:10.3390/cli8120139 
URL (non-DOI journals): 
Model:SWAT 
Broad Application Category:hydrologic only 
Primary Application Category:irrigation impacts or irrigation BMP scenarios 
Secondary Application Category:crop, forest and/or vegetation growth/yield and/or parameters 
Watershed Description:Monocacy River, a tributary of the Potomac River that drains parts of Adams County in Pennsylvania, and Frederick and Carroll Counties in Maryland, U.S. 
Calibration Summary: 
Validation Summary: 
General Comments: 
Abstract:Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions. 
Language:English 
Keywords:representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global climate models (GCMs), adaptation, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), hydrology