SWAT Literature Database for Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Title:Investigating the role of hydrological model parameter uncertainties in future streamflow projections 
Authors:Chilkoti, V., T. Bolisetti and R. Balachandar 
Journal:Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 
Volume (Issue):25(10) 
Article ID:05020035 
URL (non-DOI journals): 
Broad Application Category:hydrologic only 
Primary Application Category:calibration, sensitivity, and/or uncertainty analysis 
Secondary Application Category:climate change assessment 
Watershed Description:2,040 km^2 Magpie River, which is located in the Boreal Shield Region in northern Ontario, Canada. 
Calibration Summary: 
Validation Summary: 
General Comments: 
Abstract:Calibrated hydrological models forced with the climate data from various climate models have been widely employed for future streamflow projection. But a major cause of concern in such an analysis has been the suite of uncertainties inherent in the modeling chain that begins from the climate models and ends with the hydrological models. The uncertainties contributed by the hydrological models have generally been given a lesser focus. In the present research, the contribution of the hydrological model parameter uncertainty has been investigated. The multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) is employed for calibrating the hydrological model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for the Magpie River, located in Northern Ontario. The calibrated model was then forced with the data from an ensemble of six regional climate models for projecting the scenario streamflow and evaluating associated uncertainties. A significant variation in seasonal water availability is projected for the two scenario periods studied. The contribution of the hydrological model parameter uncertainty in the streamflow projection is found to be significant, lying in the range of 16%–83%, depending on the month. 
Keywords:Climate change impacts; Uncertainties; Hydrologic modeling; Multiobjective calibration; Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)