|Quantitative analysis of the effects of natural and human factors on a hydrological system in Zhangweinan Canal Basin
|Zhao, Z., H. Wang, Q. Bai, Y. Wu and C. Wang
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|37,700 km^2 Zhangweinan Canal drainage area, a tributary of the Haihe River located mainly in Shanxi Province and flow into Bohai Bay in eastern China.
|Drought is a water deficit state caused by large-scale climate change that cannot be avoided
by a water resource management system. Water scarcity refers to the unsustainable utilization of
water resources over a long time, which is the result of water management policies. However, water
deficits caused by drought and water scarcity often occur simultaneously and are indistinguishable.
This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can quantitatively distinguish natural
factors (drought) from human factors (water scarcity) in a hydrological system. The simulation
was applied to the Zhangweinan Canal Basin, based on the runoff sequences from 1950 to 2004.
The results show that the runoff curve number, soil depth, soil available water, soil evaporation
compensation coefficient, base runoff α coefficient and the maximum canopy interception have
the highest sensitivity to runoff, and that the calibrated and validated SWAT model can effectively
simulate the runoff process in the Zhangweinan Canal Basin and similar areas. Abrupt changes in
human activities in 1975 and water scarcity led to the disappearance of the summer peak runoff period
in both wet and dry years. Human factors are the main reason for the change in the hydrological
system in the study area; the runoff loss caused by human factors is four times that caused by natural
factors according to the proposed variable threshold. This study proposes a model-based simulation
framework that can help water resource managers to distinguish the effects of drought and water
scarcity in water-stressed areas and adjust management accordingly.
|SWAT model; natural factors; human factors; drought; water scarcity; difference analysis