Title: | Application of SWAT using snow data and detecting climate change impacts in the mountainous eastern regions of Turkey |
Authors: | Peker, I.B. and A.A. Sorman |
Year: | 2021 |
Journal: | Water |
Volume (Issue): | 13(14) |
Pages: | |
Article ID: | 1982 |
DOI: | 10.3390/w13141982 |
URL (non-DOI journals): | |
Model: | SWAT |
Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
Secondary Application Category: | snowmelt, frozen soil and/or glacier melt processes |
Watershed Description: | 5,900 km^2 Murat and 2,890 km^2 Karasu Rivers, which are headwater streams for the Euphrates River that are located in eastern Turkey. |
Calibration Summary: | |
Validation Summary: | |
General Comments: | |
Abstract: | In recent years, the potential impacts of climate change on water resources and the hydrologic
cycle have gained importance especially for snow-dominated mountainous basins. Within
this scope, the Euphrates-Tigris Basin, a snow-fed transboundary river with several large dams, was
selected to investigate the effects of changing climate on seasonal snow and runoff. In this study, two
headwater basins of the Euphrates River, ranging in elevation between 1500–3500 m, were assigned
and SWAT was employed as a hydrological modeling tool. Model calibration and validation were
conducted in a stepwise manner for snow and runoff consecutively. For the snow routine, model
parameters were adjusted using MODIS daily snow-covered area, achieving hit rates of more than
95% between MODIS and SWAT. Other model parameters were calibrated successively and later
validated according to daily runoff, reaching a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.64–0.82 in both basins.
After the modeling stage, the focus was drawn to the impacts of climate change under two different
climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in two 30-year projection periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2099).
From the results, it is estimated that on average snow water equivalent decreases in the order of
30–39% and snow-covered days shorten by 37–43 days for the two basins until 2099. In terms of
runoff, a slight reduction of at most 5% on average volume is projected but more notably, runoff
center-time is expected to shift 1–2 weeks earlier by the end of the century. |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | SWAT; snow; climate change; Turkey |