| Title: | Water quantity and quality under future climate and societal scenarios: A basin-wide approach applied to the Sorraia River, Portugal |
| Authors: | Almeida, C., T.B. Ramos, P. Segurado, P. Branco, R. Neves and R.P. de Oliveira |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 10(9) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 1186 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w10091186 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic and pollutant |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | nutrient cycling/loss and transport |
| Watershed Description: | 7,730 km^2 Sorraia River, a tributary of the Tagus River which drains parts of south central Portugal. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Water resources are impacted by several stressors like over-population and over
consumption that compromises their availability. These stressors are expected to progressively
intensify due to climate change in most regions of the world, with direct impact on watersheds and
river systems. This study investigates the effect of different watershed pressure scenarios due to
climate change in the hydrological regime of the Sorraia River basin, Portugal. This catchment
includes one of the largest irrigated areas in the country, thus being strongly influenced by
anthropogenic activities, associated to hydrological (irrigation, flow regulation, damming) and
nutrient stressors. The Soil Water Assessment Tool has been used to simulate water flow and nutrient
dynamics in the watershed while considering inputs from two climate models and three societal
scenarios. Results have shown that the predicted rainfall reductions will have a significant impact
on river flow and nutrient concentrations when compared to baseline conditions. River flow will
expectably decrease by 75%, while nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in river water will
expectably increase by 500% and 200%, respectively. These differences are more evident for storylines
that consider increasing pressures such as population growth and agricultural expansion marked
with unsustainable practices and increased reliance on technology. The results of this study indicate a
possible future outcome and provide effective guidelines for the formulation of water management
policies to counter the impacts of climate change and corresponding environmental pressures in the
Sorraia River basin. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | hydrological modelling; climate change; basin management scenarios; Sorraia River Basin |