| Title: | Quantifying the impacts of climate change on streamflow dynamics of two major rivers of the northern Lake Erie Basin in Canada |
| Authors: | Zhang, B., N.K. Shrestha, P. Daggupati, R. Rudra, R. Shukla, B. Kaur and J.Hou |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Sustainability |
| Volume (Issue): | 10(8) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 2897 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/su10082897 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 21,750 km^2 Northern Lake Erie drainage area, located in southwest Ontario, Canada. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | : This paper focuses on understanding the effects of projected climate change on streamflow dynamics of the Grand and Thames rivers of the Northern Lake Erie (NLE) basin. A soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model is developed, calibrated, and validated in a base-period. The model is able to simulate the monthly streamflow dynamics with ‘Good’ to ‘Very Good’ accuracy. The calibrated and validated model is then subjected with daily bias-corrected future climatic data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). Five bias-correction methods and their 12 combinations were evaluated using the Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd). Distribution mapping (DM) performed the best and was used for further analysis. Two future time-periods and two IPCC AR5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are considered. Results showed marked temporal and spatial variability in precipitation (−37% to +63%) and temperature (−3 ◦C to +14 ◦C) changes, which are reflected in evapotranspiration (−52% to +412%) and soil water storage (−60% to +12%) changes, resulting in heterogeneity in streamflow (−77% to +170%) changes. On average, increases in winter (+11%), and decreases in spring (–33%), summer (−23%), and autumn (−15%) streamflow are expected in future. This is the first work of this kind in the NLE and such marked variability in water resources availability poses considerable challenges to water resources planners and managers. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | climate change; bias-correction; Northern Lake Erie basin; streamflow; SWAT |