| Title: | Assessment of water supply stability for drought-vulnerable Boryeong Multipurpose Dam in South Korea using future dry climate change scenarios |
| Authors: | Kim, W., J. Lee, J. Kim and S. Kim |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 11(11) |
| Pages: | 2403 |
| Article ID: | |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w11112403 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | drought assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | climate change |
| Watershed Description: | 163.6 km^2 Boryeong Dam drainage area, located in west central South Korea. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | This study assessed the water supply stability for Boryeong multipurpose dam by applying
future dry climate change scenarios and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). CMCC-CM,
INM-CM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were selected as the future dry conditions
using Runs theory and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). For historical (1980–1999), present
(2000–2019), and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) of the 6 scenarios, SWAT model
was used to simulate the future dam water supply stability. The stability was evaluated in terms of
reliability (RT), resilience (RS), and vulnerability (V) based on the monthly target storage. The results
showed that the future RT can be decreased to 0.803 in 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 8.5 scenario from
present 0.955. The future RS and V showed the minimum value of 0.003 and the biggest value of
3567.6 106 m3 in 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 scenario. The future RT, RS, and V showed that the
dam has low resilience and is vulnerable to future drought scenarios. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | climate change; drought; dry scenario; SWAT; water supply; Runs theory; SPI |