| Title: | Long-term variation of runoff coefficient during dry and wet seasons due to climate change |
| Authors: | Ha, D.T.T., M. Ghafouri-Azar and D.-H. Bae |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 11 |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 2411 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w11112411 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | hydrologic and/or pollutant indices |
| Secondary Application Category: | climate change |
| Watershed Description: | 33,808 km² Han, 31,785 km² Nakdong, 17,537 km² Geum, 8,311 km² Seomjin and 7,585 km² Yeongsan Rivers, which collectively drain all of South Korea. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the future long-term variation of the runoff coefficient during dry and wet seasons in five major basins in South Korea. The variation is estimated from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model outputs based on an ensemble of 13 different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The estimates show a temporal non-considerable increase rate of the runoff coefficient during the 21st century in both RCPs, in which the trend and uncertainty of the runoff coefficient in the dry season is projected as higher than that in the wet season. A sharp contrast between the trends of the two components of the runoff coefficient is found during the dry and wet seasons. Over the five major basins, a higher increase rate of runoff coefficient is projected in the northeastern part of the Han River basin and most of the area of the Nakdong River basin. The spatial variation in the runoff coefficient change also represents a relationship with the change in the percentage of each land cover/land use type over 109 subbasins, where the correlation of the wet-season runoff coefficient is calculated as higher than that of the dry season. This relationship is expected to vary with changes in temperature and precipitation during both seasons in three future periods. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | SWAT model; climate change; runoff coefficient; surface runoff; groundwater flow; MME analysis; water scarcity |