| Title: | Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0∘ C global warming |
| Authors: | Xu, H., L. Liu, Y. Wang, S. Wang, Y. Hao, J. Ma and T. Jiang |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Volume (Issue): | 23(10) |
| Pages: | 4219-4231 |
| Article ID: | |
| DOI: | 10.5194/hess-23-4219-2019 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 41,600 km^2 Shiyang River, 19,359 km^2 Chaobai River, 144,900 km^2 upper portion of the Huaihe River, and 36,400 Km^2 Fujiang River, all located in China. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | To quantify climate change impact and difference on basin-scale river runoff under the limiting global warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C, this study examined four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting. We analyzed projected climate change in four basins, quantified climate change impact on annual and seasonal runoff based on the Soil Water Assessment Tool, and estimated the uncertainty constrained by the global circulation model (GCM) structure and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). All statistics for the two river basins (the Shiyang River, SYR, and the Chaobai River, CBR) located in northern China indicated generally warmer and wetter conditions, whereas the two river basins (the Huaihe River, HHR, and the Fujiang River, FJR) located in southern China projected less warming and were inconsistent regarding annual precipitation change. The simulated changes in annual runoff were complex; however, there was no shift in seasonal runoff pattern. The 0.5 ◦C global warming difference resulted in 0.7 and 0.6 ◦C warming in basins in northern and southern China, respectively. This led to a projected precipitation increase by about 2 % for the four basins and to a decrease in simulated annual runoff of 8 % and 1 % in the SYR and the HHR, respectively, but to an increase of 4 % in the CBR and the FJR. The uncertainty in projected annual temperature was dominated by the GCMs or the RCPs; however, that of precipitation was constrained mainly by the GCMs. The 0.5 ◦C difference decreased the uncertainty in the annual precipitation projection and the annual and monthly runoff simulation |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | |