| Title: | Impacts of climate change and land-use change on hydrological extremes in the Jinsha River Basin |
| Authors: | Chen, Q., H. Chen, J. Wang, Y. Zhao, J. Chen and C. Xu |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 11(7) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 1398 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w11071398 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change and land use change |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 455,000 km^2 Jinsha River, the tributary source of the Yangtze River which drains portions of the Provinces of Qinghai, Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou in west central China. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Hydrological extremes are closely related to extreme hydrological events, which have
been and continue to be one of the most important natural hazards causing great damage to lives
and properties. As two of the main factors affecting the hydrological cycle, land-use change and
climate change have attracted the attention of many researchers in recent years. However, there
are few studies that comprehensively consider the impacts of land-use change and climate change
on hydrological extremes, and few researchers have made a quantitative distinction between them.
Regarding this problem, this study aims to quantitatively distinguish the effects of land-use change
and climate change on hydrological extremes during the past half century using the method of
scenarios simulation with the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Furthermore, the variations of
hydrological extremes are forecast under future scenarios by incorporating the downscaled climate
simulations from several representative general circulation models (GCMs). Results show that:
(1) respectively rising and declining risks of floods and droughts are detected during 1960–2017.
The land use changed little during 1980–2015, except for the water body and building land. (2) The
SWAT model possesses better simulation effects on high flows compared with low flows. Besides, the
downscaled GCM data can simulate the mean values of runoff well, and acceptable simulation effects
are achieved for the extreme runoff indicators, with the exception of frequency and durations of floods
and extreme low flows. (3) During the period 1970–2017, the land-use change exerts little impact
on runoff extremes, while climate change is one of the main factors leading to changes in extreme
hydrological situation. (4) In the context of global climate change, the indicators of 3-day max and
3-day min runoff will probably increase in the near future (2021–2050) compared with the historical
period (1970–2005). This research helps us to better meet the challenge of probably increased flood
risks by providing references to the decision making of prevention and mitigation measures, and
thus possesses significant social and economic value. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | hydrological extremes; climate change; land use change; SWAT model |