| Title: | Impact of climate forecasts on the microbial quality of a drinking water source in Norway using hydrodynamic modeling |
| Authors: | Mohammed, H., A. Longva and R. Seidu |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 11(3) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 527 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w11030527 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic and pollutant |
| Primary Application Category: | pathogen fate and transport |
| Secondary Application Category: | climate change |
| Watershed Description: | Årsetelva, Brusdalen, Slettebakk and Vasstrandelva Rivers, which drain to Brusdalsvatnet Lake in southwest Norway. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | This study applies hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to evaluate the potential
effects of local climate projections on the mixing conditions in Lake Brusdalsvatnet in Norway and
the implications on the occurrence of Escherichia coli (E. coli) at the raw water intake point of the
Ålesund water treatment plant in the future. The study is mainly based on observed and projected
temperature, the number of E. coli in the tributaries of the lake and projected flow. The results indicate
a gradual rise in the temperature of water at the intake point from the base year 2017 to year 2075.
In the future, vertical circulations in spring may occur earlier while autumn circulation may start
later than currently observed in the lake. The number of E. coli at the intake point of the lake is
expected to marginally increase in future. By the year 2075, the models predict an approximately
three-fold increase in average E. coli numbers for the spring and autumn seasons compared to current
levels. The results are expected to provide the water supply system managers of Ålesund with the
information necessary for long-term planning and decisions in the protection of the drinking water
source. The method used here can also be applied to similar drinking water sources in Norway for
developing effective risk management strategies within their catchments. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | climate change; E. coli; hydrodynamic modeling; lake circulation periods; precipitation; temperature |