| Title: | Impact of climate variability on blue and green water flows in the Erhai Lake Basin of southwest China |
| Authors: | Yuan, Z., J. Xu, X. Meng, Y. Wang, B. Yan and X. Hong |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 11(3) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 424 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w11030424 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | blue, green and/or gray water, or crop water productivity |
| Secondary Application Category: | land use change assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 2496.6 km^2 Erhai Lake drainage area, located in southwest China |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | The Erhai Lake Basin is a crucial water resource of the Dali prefecture. This research used
the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets
for the SWAT model (CMADS) to estimate blue and green water flows. Then the spatial and temporal
change of blue and green water flows was investigated. With the hypothetical climate change scenarios,
the sensitivity of blue and green water flows to precipitation and temperature has also been analyzed.
The results showed that: (1) The CMADS reanalysis dataset can capture the observed probability
density functions for daily precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, the CMADS performed well
in monthly variables simulation with relative bias and absolute bias less than 7% and 0.5 C for
precipitation and temperature, respectively; (2) blue water flow has increased while green water flow
has decreased during 2009 to 2016. The spatial distribution of blue water flow was uneven in the Erhai
Lake Basin with the blue water flow increased from low altitudes to mountain areas. While the spatial
distribution of green water flow was more homogeneous; (3) a 10% increase in precipitation can bring
a 20.8% increase in blue water flow with only a 2.5% increase in green water flow at basin scale.
When temperature increases by a 1.0 C, the blue water flow and green water flow changes by -3%
and 1.7%, respectively. Blue and green water flows were more sensitive to precipitation in low altitude
regions. In contrast, the water flows were more sensitive to temperature in the mountainous area. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | blue and green water flows, climate variability, sensitivity analysis, Erhai Lake Basin |