| Title: | An integrated modelling approach to study future water demand vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal |
| Authors: | Almeida, C., T.B. Ramos, J. Sobrinho, R. Neves and R.P. Oliveira |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Sustainability |
| Volume (Issue): | 11(1) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 206 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/su11010206 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | model and/or data interface |
| Secondary Application Category: | climate change |
| Watershed Description: | 1,200 km^2 Sor River, which is a tributary of the 7,730 km^2 Sorraia River (and larger Tagus River system) and drains to the Montargil Reservoir in central Portugal. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | This paper describes an integrated modelling approach to study water use vulnerability in
a typical Mediterranean basin under different climate change projections. The soil water assessment
tool (SWAT) and the MOHID (from modelo hidrodinâmico) Water model were used to evaluate the
impacts of two climate scenarios (GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) on water availability in
Montargil’s basin and reservoir (Portugal) during two decadal timelines (2030 and 2060). Reservoir
performance metrics were estimated considering also two water demand scenarios: an average of the
water demand in the last 10 years; and the largest annual demand of the last 10 years. The SWAT
model results showed a future decrease of inflows to the reservoir, with its volumetric reliability
decreasing from 100% in the historical simulation to about 60–70% in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate
scenario and 40–50% in the GFDL-ESM2M climate scenario. The time reliability also decreased to less
than 30%, while the resiliency for the water demand decreased to an average 20–35% for both climate
scenarios. These impacts indicate the importance of the managing systems in an integrative mode to
prevent water resources reduction in the region. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | integrating modelling; climate change; water availability; vulnerability; Montargil;
basin; reservoir |