| Title: | Projected changes in hydrological variables in the agricultural region of Alberta, Canada |
| Authors: | Masud, M.B., J. Ferdous and M. Faramarzi |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 10(12) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 1810 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w10121810 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 17 major river systems that cover, and extend beyond, the 660,000 km^2 Province of Alberta. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | The responses of regional hydrological variables to climate change are of prime concern for
agricultural water resources planning and management. Therefore, the seasonal (April–September)
and annual (January–December) evolution of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration (ET),
soil moisture (SM), deep aquifer recharge (DA), and water yield (WYLD) was investigated using
established statistical techniques for the historical, near and far future (1983–2007: His, 2010–2034:
NF, 2040–2064: FF) in the agricultural region of Alberta, Canada. Previously calibrated and validated
agro-hydrological models (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to generate these variables.
Future changes were investigated under two representative concentration pathways, i.e., RCP 2.6 and
RCP 8.5, projected by nine global climate models (GCM). Results revealed that Alberta had become
warmer and drier during the His period. The future projection showed an increase in precipitation,
SM, DA, and WYLD, in turn, indicated more water resources. Precipitation and temperature were
projected to increase between 1 to 7% and 1.21 to 2.32 C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation showed
a higher trend magnitude than that of annual precipitation. The temperature generally had an
increasing trend in the future with a maximum in the southern Alberta. Monthly average ET was
likely to increase and decrease in the rising and falling limbs of the bell-shaped curve with the peak in
July. A comparison of water demand from two land use types (dominant land use and barley) during
the His period showed that water deficit existed in July and August. The results of this study could
help in understanding anticipated changes in hydrological variables and decision-making regarding
the regional agricultural water resources management. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | hydrologic modelling; SWAT; climate variability; trend detection; modified Mann–Kendall
test; Sen’s slope estimator; climate change |