| Title: | Impact of global climate change on stream low flows: A case study of the great Miami River Watershed, Ohio |
| Authors: | Shrestha, S., S. Sharma, R. Gupta and R. Bhattarai |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering |
| Volume (Issue): | 12(1) |
| Pages: | 84–95 |
| Article ID: | |
| DOI: | 10.25165/j.ijabe.20191201.4486 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 10,023.25 km^2 Great Miami River, located in the southwestern part of Ohio, U.S. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Climate change will profoundly affect hydrological processes at various temporal and spatial scales. This study is
focused on assessing the alteration of water resources availability and low flows frequencies driven by changing climates in
different time periods of the 21st century. This study evaluates the adaptability of prevailing Global Circulation Models
(GCMs) on a particular watershed through streamflow regimes. This analysis was conducted in the Great Miami River
Watershed, Ohio by analyzing historical and future simulated streamflow using 10 climate model outputs and the Soil and
Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The climate change scenarios, consisting of ten downscaled Coupled Model
Intercomparision Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were selected based on the correlation between observed records and model outputs. Streamflow for
three future periods, 2016-2043, 2044-2071 and 2072-2099, were independently analyzed and compared with the baseline
period (1988-2015). Results from the average of ten models projected that 7-day low flows in the watershed would increase
by 19% in the 21st century under both RCPs. This trend was also consistent for both hydrological (7Q10, 1Q10) and
biological low flow statistics (4B3, 1B3). Similarly, average annual flow and monthly flows would also increase in future
periods, especially in the summer. The flows simulated by SWAT in response to the majority of climate model projections
showed a consistent increase in low flow patterns. However, the flow estimates using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System
Model (MPI-ESM-LR) climate output resulted in the biological based low flows (4B3, 1B3) decreasing by 22.5% and 33.4%
under RCP 4.5 and 56.9% and 63.7% under RCP 8.5, respectively, in the future when compared to the baseline period.
Regardless, the low flow ensemble from the 10 climate models for 21st century seemed to be slightly higher than that of
historical low flows. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | climate change, low flows, SWAT, climate models, Great Miami River Watershed |