| Title: | Enumerating the effects of climate change on water resources using GCM scenarios at the Xin'anjiang Watershed, China |
| Authors: | Zaman, M., M.N. Anjum, M. Usman, I. Ahmad, M. Saifullah, S. Yuan and S. Liu |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 10(10) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 1296 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w10101296 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydropower assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 11,675.710 km^2 Xin'jiang river, located in southeast China. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | The present study developed a novel approach to study the climate change impact on
the water resources and generation of hydropower optimally using forecasted stream flows for the
Xin’anjiang water shed in China. Future flows were projected using six large-scale Global circulation
models (GCMs) with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. A newly developed mathematical modeling using
particle swarm optimization was incorporated to work out the projected optimal electricity generation
from the Xin’anjiang hydropower station. The results reveal that watershed will be warmer by the
end of the 21st century with a maximum increase of up to 4.9 C for mean maximum, and 4.8 C
for mean minimum temperature. Six GCMs under Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs)
showed that future precipitation is complex to predict with certainty and significant differences were
observed among the different GCMs. The overall mean monthly and seasonal precipitation increase
for most scenarios with the maximum increase during the 2020s and 2080s, whereas 2050s exhibited
the lesser increase. Resultantly, there would be an increase in the stream flows during these periods,
which was used for electricity production up to 31.41 X 108 kWh. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | water resources; climate change; particle swarm optimization; SWAT; CMIP5; optimal electricity generation; Xin’anjiang watershed |