| Title: | Modelling the ffects of historical and future land cover changes on the hydrology of an Amazonian Basin |
| Authors: | Abe, C.A., F. de Lucia Lobo, Y.B. Dibike, M.P. de Farias Costa, V. dos Santos and E.M.L.M. Novo |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 10(7) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 932 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w10070932 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | land use change |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 5,924 km^2 Upper Crepori River, a tributary of the Tapajós River located in the Amazon River Basin in northwest Brazil. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Land cover changes (LCC) affect the water balance (WB), changing surface runoff (SurfQ),
evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater (GW) regimes, and streamflow (Q). The Tapajós Basin
(southeastern Amazon) has experienced LCC over the last 40 years, with increasing LCC rates
projected for the near future. Several studies have addressed the effects of climate changes on the
region’s hydrology, but few have explored the effects of LCC on its hydrological regime. In this study,
the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to model the LCC effects on the hydrology
of the Upper Crepori River Basin (medium Tapajós Basin), using historical and projected LCC based
on conservation policies (GOV_2050) and on the “Business as Usual” trend (BAU_2050). LCC that
occurred from 1973 to 2012, increased Q by 2.5%, without noticeably altering the average annual WB.
The future GOV_2050 and BAU_2050 scenarios increased SurfQ by 238.87% and 300.90%, and Q by
2.53% and 2.97%, respectively, and reduced GW by 4.00% and 5.21%, and ET by 2.07% and 2.43%,
respectively. Results suggest that the increase in deforestation will intensify floods and low-flow
events, and that the conservation policies considered in the GOV_2050 scenario may still compromise
the region’s hydrology at a comparable level to that of the BAU_2050. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | water balance; land cover change; Amazon; hydrological modelling; water resources |