| Title: | Hydrological modeling of climate change impacts in a tropical river basin: A case study of the Cauto River, Cuba |
| Authors: | Mentecelos-Zamora, Y., T. Cavazos, T. Kretzschmar, E.R. Vivoni, E.R., G. Corzo and E. Molina-Navarro |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 10(9) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 1135 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w10091135 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 9,540 km^2 Cauto river, which drains much of southwest Cuba. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied for the first time in Cuba to
assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Cauto River basin. The
model was calibrated (and validated) for the 2001-2006 (2007-2010) period at a monthly timescale in
two subbasins La Fuente and Las Coloradas, representative of middle and upper sections of the Cauto
basin; the calibrated models showed good performance. The output available for the regional climate
Model RegCM4.3 was used to force the calibrated SWAT models to simulate a baseline (1970-2000)
period and near-future (2015-2039) hydrologic regimes under the representative concentration
pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The future projections suggest regional increases of 1.5 C in
mean annual temperature and a 38% decrease in mean annual precipitation in the subbasins. These
changes translate to possible reductions in the annual streamflow of up to 61% with respect to the
baseline period, whereas the aquifer recharge in the basin is expected to decrease up to 58%, with a
consequent reduction of groundwater flow, especially during the boreal summer wet season. These
projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | rainfall-runoff modeling; SWAT; RegCM4.3; Cuba; climate change; water management |