| Title: | Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed |
| Authors: | Duku, C., S.J. Zwart and L. Hein |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | PLoS ONE |
| Volume (Issue): | 13(3) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | e0192642 |
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0192642 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change and land use change |
| Secondary Application Category: | drought assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 14,500 km^2 Upper Ouémé River, located in central Benin. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan
Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated
cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus
of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop
yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for
increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in
central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving
two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the
watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental
water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin,
warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the
expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between
50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need
to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed
will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent
need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our
study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome
to improve food security in the coming decades. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | |