| Title: | Impact of climate change of water resources of the Bheri River Basin, Nepal |
| Authors: | Mishra, Y., T. Nakamura, M.S. Babel, S. Ninsawat and S. Ochi |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 10(2) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 220 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w10020220 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 13,900 km^2 Bheri River, a tributary of the Karnali River which is located in western Nepal. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Streamflow alteration is one of the most noticeable effects of climate change. This study
explored the effects of climate change on streamflow in the Bheri River using the Soil and Water
Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5) for the periods of 2020–2044, 2045–2069, and 2070–2099
were used to investigate the impact of climate change. Based on the ensemble of the three models,
we observed an increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures at the rate of 0.025 C/year
and 0.033 C/year, respectively, under RCP 4.5, and 0.065 C/year and 0.071 C/year under RCP
8.5 in the future. Similarly, annual rainfall will increase by 6.8–15.2% in the three future periods.
The consequences of the increment in rainfall and temperature are reflected in the annual streamflow
that is projected to increase by 6–12.5% when compared to the historical data of 1975–2005. However,
on a monthly scale, runoff will decrease in July and August by up to 20% and increase in the dry
period by up to 70%, which is favorable for water users. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | climate change; GCM; SWAT; Bheri River Basin |