| Title: | Improving streamflow prediction using uncertainty analysis and bayesian model averaging |
| Authors: | Neto, A.A.M., P.T.S. Oliveira, D.B.B. Rodrigues and E. Wendland |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Journal of Hydrologic Engineering |
| Volume (Issue): | 23(5) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 05018004 |
| DOI: | 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001639 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0001639 |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | uncertainty analysis |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 65 km^2 Ribeir˜ao da Onça drainage area, located in the municipality of Brotas in the central part of S˜ao Paulo State in southeast Brazil. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | As of April 9, 2018 the DOI for this article does not work but the URL does. |
| Abstract: | Hydrological modeling has been used worldwide as an important tool to evaluate the consequences of land cover and land use
change on hydrological processes. However, the lack of spatial-temporal rainfall and runoff data have compromised the reliability of the results
in several regions of Brazil. In this study, the authors investigated the use of uncertainty analysis and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a tool
for improving streamflow estimates in the Ribeir˜ao da Onça Basin (ROB), located in southeastern Brazil. They used a set of two precipitation
data sources (ground and remote sensing data) and different spatial interpolation schemes as input data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool
(SWAT) model, resulting in five model configurations. These models were submitted to automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis through
the sequential uncertainty fitting ver-2 (SUFI-2) method. Then, the BMA method was used to merge those different model configuration results
into a single probabilistic prediction, thereafter compared among themselves. An analysis of the accuracy and precision of all simulations
produced by the precipitation ensemble members against the BMA simulation supports the use of the latter as a suitable framework for streamflow
simulations at the ROB. Furthermore, the approaches evaluated in this study may be used to improve streamflow predictions in ungauged
or data-scarce basins. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Bayesian model averaging; Hydrological modeling; Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model; Uncertainty analysis. |