Title: | Multiple climate change scenarios and runoff response in Biliu River |
Authors: | Zu, X., C. Zhang, W. Qi, W. Cai, X. Zhao and X. Wang |
Year: | 2018 |
Journal: | Water |
Volume (Issue): | 10(2) |
Pages: | |
Article ID: | 126 |
DOI: | 10.3390/w10020126 |
URL (non-DOI journals): | |
Model: | SWAT |
Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
Watershed Description: | 2,085 km^2 Biliu River, located in Liaoning Province in northeast China. |
Calibration Summary: | |
Validation Summary: | |
General Comments: | |
Abstract: | The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on regional evaporation and runoff
characteristics have been investigated for the Biliu River basin, which is located in Liaoning Province,
northeast China. Multiple climate change scenarios from phase 3 and phase 5 of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) (21 scenarios in total) were utilized. A calibrated
hydrologic model—SWAT model—was used to simulate future discharges based on downscaled
climate data through a validated morphing method. Results show that both annual temperature
and precipitation increase under most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios, and increase more in
the far future (2041–2065) than in the near future (2016–2040). These changes in precipitation and
temperature lead to an increase in evaporation under 19 scenarios and a decrease in runoff under
two-thirds of the selected scenarios. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 scenarios show higher temperature
and wider ranges of changes in precipitation and runoff. The results provide important information
on the impacts of global climate change on water resources availability in the Biliu River basin, which
is beneficial for the planning and management of water resources in this region. |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | climate change; CMIP3; CMIP5; downscaling; runoff response; SWAT model |