| Title: | Climate change impacts of flow and suspended yield in headwaters of high-latitude regions - A case study in China's far northeast |
| Authors: | Zhou, Y., Y.J. Xu, W. Xiao, J. Wang, Y. Huang and H. Yang |
| Year: | 2017 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 9(12) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 966 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w9120966 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic and pollutant |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | sediment loss and transport |
| Watershed Description: | 1,861 km^2 Yinma River, a tributary of the Songhua River located in far northwest China. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on water resources in higher latitude
regions. Despite intensive research on possible hydrological responses in those regions to a warmer
environment, our knowledge on erosion and sediment yield induced by the climate change in
high-latitude headwaters is still limited. In this study, we estimated suspended sediment yields from
2021 to 2050 in a typical headwater area of far Northeast China to elucidate potential impacts of
future climate change on surface runoff and erosion in higher latitude regions. We first parameterized
the Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT) using historical measurements to estimate runoff from
the river basin. The model performed well in both the calibration (2006–2011) and the validation
(2012–2014) periods, with an R2 of 0.85 and 0.88 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.7 and
0.73, respectively. We also utilized historical measurements on sediment yields from the period
2006–2014 to develop a runoff-sediment yield rating curve, and the rating curve obtained an excellent
goodness of fit (R2 = 0.91, p < 0.001). We then applied the calibrated SWAT model to two climate
change projections, also known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5),
for the period from 2021 to 2050 to obtain future runoff estimates. These runoff estimates were then
used to predict future sediment yield by using the developed runoff-sediment yield rating curve.
Our study found a significant increase of annual sediment yield (p < 0.05) for both climate change
projections (RCP4.5 = 237%; RCP8.5 = 133%) in this, China’s high-latitude region. The increases of
sediment yield were prevalent in summer and autumn, varying from 102–299% between the two
RCPs scenarios. Precipitation was the dominated factor that determined the variation of runoff and
sediment yield. A warming climate could bring more snowmelt-induced spring runoff and longer
rainy days in autumn, hence leading to higher erosion. These findings demonstrate that under the
changing climate, soils in this high-latitude headwater area would be eroded twice to three times that
of the baseline period (1981–2010), indicating a potential risk to the downstream water quality and
reservoir management. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | high-latitude regions; climate change; headwaters; sediment yield and erosion;
Northeast China |