| Title: | Management scenarios of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and their impacts under recent and future climates |
| Authors: | Liersch, S., H. Koch and F.F. Hattermann |
| Year: | 2017 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 9(10) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 728 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w9100728 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWIM |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | hydropower assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | climate change |
| Watershed Description: | 172,000 km^2 subwatershed of the Blue Nile River, located in northwest Ethiopia. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Close to the border with Sudan, Ethiopia is currently building the largest hydroelectric
power plant in Africa with a storage volume corresponding to approximately 1.5 years of the
mean discharges of the Blue Nile. This endeavor is controversially debated in the public and the
scientific literature. Contributing to this discussion, by shading some light on climate change issues,
an eco-hydrological model, equipped with a reservoir module, was applied to investigate downstream
hydrological impacts during filling and regular operation, the latter considering climate change
projected by an ensemble of 10 global and regional climate models. Our results show that at the
earliest after 20 months, the dam could produce hydroelectric power. Full supply level may be
reached after four years or not at all, depending on filling policies and assumptions of seepage
rates. Under recent hydro-climatic conditions, the dam may produce 13 TWh-a, which is below
the envisaged target of 15.7 TWh-a. The ensemble mean suggests slightly increasing hydropower
production in the future. Almost independently of the operation rules, the highly variable discharge
regime will be significantly altered to a regime with almost equal flows each month. Achieving a
win-win situation for all riparian countries requires a high level of cooperation in managing the
Eastern Nile water resources. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | water resources management; Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; Blue Nile; reservoir
operation scenarios; climate change |