SWAT Literature Database for Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Title:Water resources of the Black Sea catchment under future climate and landuse change projections 
Authors:Freund, E.R., K.C. Abbaspour and A. Lehmann 
Volume (Issue):9(8) 
Article ID:598 
URL (non-DOI journals): 
Broad Application Category:hydrologic only 
Primary Application Category:blue, green and/or gray water, or crop water productivity 
Secondary Application Category:climate change and land use change 
Watershed Description:2.3 million km^2 Black Sea drainage area, which drains parts of 23 European and Asian countries. 
Calibration Summary: 
Validation Summary: 
General Comments: 
Abstract:As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate and landuse change on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance. In this study we used a previously developed hydrologic model of the Black Sea Catchment (BSC) to assess the impact of potential climate and landuse changes on the fresh water availability. The BSC model was built, calibrated, and validated against observed daily river discharge for the period of 1973–2006 using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as the modeling tool. We employed the A2 and B2 scenarios of 2017–2050 generated by the Danish Regional Climate Model (HIRHAM), and four potential future landuse scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)’s special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) storylines, to analyze the impact of climate change and landuse change on the water resources of the BSC. The detailed modeling and the ensemble of the scenarios showed that a substantial part of the catchment will likely experience a decrease in freshwater resources by 30 to 50%. 
Keywords:hydrology; Danube; Don; Dnieper; land use change; hydrological modeling