| Title: | Quantifying the effects of future climate conditions on runoff, sediment, and chemical losses at different watershed sizes |
| Authors: | Wallace, C.W., D.C. Flanagan and B.A. Engel |
| Year: | 2017 |
| Journal: | Transactions of the ASABE |
| Volume (Issue): | 60(3) |
| Pages: | 915-929 |
| Article ID: | |
| DOI: | 10.13031/trans.12094 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic and pollutant |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | pollutant cycling/loss and transport |
| Watershed Description: | 679 km^2 Cedar Creek, and three subwatersheds that cover 19.7 km^2, 41.5 km^2 and 182.5 km^2. Cedar Creek is a tributary of the Joseph River in northeast Indiana, U.S. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | . Quantifying the effects of climate change on watershed hydrology and agricultural chemical losses is imperative
when developing appropriate management practices for agricultural watersheds. Agricultural management practices are
often assessed at the watershed scale; therefore, understanding the influence of climate change at different watershed sizes
can provide insight into the effectiveness of watershed management strategies. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment
Tool (SWAT) and downscaled weather data generated using the MarkSim weather file generator were used to evaluate the
potential impact of climate change in the hydrologically modified Cedar Creek (CCW), F34, AXL, and ALG watersheds
located in northeastern Indiana. This study evaluated changes in surface flow, tile flow, sediment, and agricultural chemical
losses based on an ensemble mean of the 17 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We found no clear evidence that watershed size had an impact on the simulation of climate
change effects on discharge or nutrient losses. Results of this study indicated that predicted surface flow decreased significantly
toward the end of this century (ranging from 9% in CCW to 22% in ALG), while predicted subsurface tile flow
increased significantly (ranging from 20% in CCW to 26% in AXL). The percentage increases in predicted sediment loss
for the CCW, AXL, and ALG watersheds were significant at alpha = 0.05, although the magnitudes of overall sediment losses
were low, especially in the smaller monitored watersheds (F34, AXL, and ALG) in which several best management practices
are implemented. Differences in predicted atrazine, soluble N, total N, and total P losses between the baseline period (1961-
1990) and the end of this century were not significant for any of the watersheds, while increased predicted soluble P losses
were only significant for the larger CCW and F34 watersheds. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Climate change, MarkSim, Surface flow, SWAT, Tile flow. |