| Title: | Effect of climate change on hydrology, sediment and nutrient losses in two lowland catchments in Poland |
| Authors: | Marcinkowski, P., M. Piniewski, I. Kardel, M. Szcześniak, R. Benestad, R. Srinivasan, S. Ignar and T. Okruszko |
| Year: | 2017 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 9(3) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 156 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w9030156 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic and pollutant |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | pollutant cycling/loss and transport |
| Watershed Description: | 4,231 km^2 upper Narew River and 5,522 km^2 Barycz River, located respectively in southwest and northeast Poland. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources
availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect
of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper
Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021–2050, and far future: 2071–
2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine
bias-corrected General Circulation Models—Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on
the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment—European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological
response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both
catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff.
Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g.,
different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in
sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both
catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive
agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the
Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew
catchment. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | climate change effect; sediment; nutrients; SWAT; water quality |