| Title: | Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in the Songhua River Basin |
| Authors: | Li, F., G. Zhang and Y.J. Xu |
| Year: | 2016 |
| Journal: | Water |
| Volume (Issue): | 8(10) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | 420 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w8100420 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 556,800 km^2 Songhua River, located in northeast China. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | The Songhua River Basin (SRB) in Northeast China is one of the areas most sensitive to
global climate change because of its high-latitude location. In this study, we conducted a modeling
assessment on the potential change of water resources in this region for the coming three decades
using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, we calibrated and validated the model with
historical streamflow records in this basin. Then, we applied the calibrated model for the period
from 2020 to 2049 with the projected and downscaled climatic data under two emission scenarios
(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study results show: (1) The SWAT model performed very well for
both the calibration and validation periods in the SRB; (2) The projected temperatures showed a
steady, significant increase across the SRB under both scenarios, especially in two sub-basins, the
Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) and the Lower SRB (LSRB). With regard to precipitation, both scenarios
showed a decreasing trend in the NRB and LSRB but an increasing trend in the Upper Songhua
River Basin (USRB); and (3), generally, the hydrologic modeling suggested a decreasing trend of
streamflow for 2020–2049. Compared to baseline conditions (1980–2009), the streamflow in the NRB
and LSRB would decrease by 20.3%–37.8%, while streamflow in the USRB would experience an
increase of 9.68%–17.7%. These findings provide relevant insights into future surface water resources,
and such information can be helpful for resource managers and policymakers to develop effective
eco-environment management plans and strategies in the face of climate change. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | climate change; streamflow modeling; climatic scenarios; SWAT; water resources;
Nenjiang River; Second Songhua River; Songhua River |