SWAT Literature Database for Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Title:Scenario-based impact assessment of land use/cover and climate changes on watershed hydrology in Heihe River Basin of northwest China 
Authors:Wu, F., J. Zhan, H. Su, H. Yan and E. Ma 
Journal:Advances in Meteorology 
Article ID:410198 
URL (non-DOI journals): 
Broad Application Category:hydrologic only 
Primary Application Category:climate change and land use change 
Secondary Application Category:snowmelt, frozen soil and/or glacier melt processes 
Watershed Description:127,960 km^2 Heihe River Basin located in northwest China 
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General Comments: 
Abstract:This study evaluated hydrological impacts of potential climate and land use changes in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. The future climate data for the simulation with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were prepared using a dynamical downscaling method.The future land uses were simulated with the Dynamic Land Use System (DLS) model by establishing Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL) model for six land use types. In 2006–2030, land uses in the basin will experience a significant change with a prominent increase in urban areas, a moderate increase in grassland, and a great decrease in unused land. Besides, the simulation results showed that in comparison to those during 1981–2005 the temperature and precipitation during 2006–2030 will change by +0.8∘C and +10.8%, respectively. The land use change and climate change will jointly make the water yield change by +8.5%, while they will separately make the water yield change by −1.8% and +9.8%, respectively. The predicted large increase in future precipitation and the corresponding decrease in unused land will have substantial impacts on the watershed hydrology, especially on the surface runoff and streamflow. Therefore, to mitigate negative hydrological impacts and utilize positive impacts, both land use and climate changes should be considered in water resource planning for the Heihe River Basin.