SWAT Literature Database for Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Title:Effects of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Luan River basin 
Authors:Zeng, S., C. Zhan, F. Sun, H. Du and F. Wang 
Journal:Advances in Meteorology 
Volume (Issue): 
Article ID:740239 
URL (non-DOI journals): 
Broad Application Category:hydrologic only 
Primary Application Category:climate change and land use change 
Secondary Application Category:model and/or data comparison 
Watershed Description:44,750 km^2 Luan River, located in north China 
Calibration Summary: 
Validation Summary: 
General Comments: 
Abstract:Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China.The Budyko based Fumodel and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958∼2009.Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3∼46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2∼71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.