Title: | Propagation of uncertainty in diffuse pollution into water quality predictions: Application to the River Dender in Flanders, Belgium |
Authors: | Vandenberghe, V., A. van Griensven, W. Bauwens and P.A. Vanrolleghem |
Year: | 2005 |
Journal: | Water Science and Technology |
Volume (Issue): | 51(3) |
Pages: | 347-354 |
Article ID: | |
DOI: | 10.2166/wst.2005.0609 |
URL (non-DOI journals): | |
Model: | ESWAT |
Broad Application Category: | hydrologic and pollutant |
Primary Application Category: | calibration, sensitivity, and/or uncertainty analysis |
Secondary Application Category: | pollutant cycling/loss and transport |
Watershed Description: | 1,384 km^2 Dender River, located in Flanders region of Belgium. |
Calibration Summary: | graphical comparisons between simulated and measured nitrate levels |
Validation Summary: | |
General Comments: | Study focused on assessing uncertainty related to fertilizer application amounts, planting dates, & harvest dates on predicted nitrate losses. The uncertainty was determined using an efficient Monte Carlo method and latin hypercube sampling. Eight inputs were found to have a significant impact on nitrate concentrations exceeding 3 mg/l. Uncertainity analysis indicated wide uncertainty bounds: 95% ranged from ±50% relative to the average nitrate predictions. |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Diffuse pollution, integrated river basin modelling, river water quality, uncertainty analysis |