| Title: | Second-order autoregressive model based likelihood function for calibration and uncertainty analysis of SWAT model |
| Authors: | Datta, A.R. and T. Bolisetti |
| Year: | 2015 |
| Journal: | Journal of Hydrologic Engineering |
| Volume (Issue): | 20(2) |
| Pages: | |
| Article ID: | |
| DOI: | 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000917 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | calibration, sensitivity, and/or uncertainty analysis |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 348 km^2 Canard River, located in southern Ontario, Canada |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | |
| General Comments: | |
| Abstract: | Second order autoregressive [AR(2)] model has been adopted in the likelihood function to
calibrate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Canard River watershed,
Southwestern Ontario, Canada. The Bayesian approach is used for uncertainty analysis of
SWAT modeling. The performance of AR(2) model for uncertainty estimation is evaluated by
the index called Percentage of observations bracketed by the Unit Confidence Interval (PUCI)
for 95% confidence limits. The results are compared with the Simple Least Square (SLS)
method of calibration. In the SLS method, the modeling errors are assumed to be uncorrelated.
The study reveals that the model parameter uncertainty is high and there exists local optimum
values in the parameter space. The reliability of streamflow simulation uncertainty due to
parameter uncertainty is increased when AR(2) model is implemented in the calibration
process. The comparison of PUCI values between AR(2) method and SLS method show that
the estimation of streamflow simulation uncertainty is more reliable in AR(2) model based
calibration method. But the lower values of PUCI indicate very high uncertainty in 95%
confidence limits estimation. The residuals are observed to have non-normal distribution with
non-constant variance. Therefore, appropriate transformation of data might improve the
uncertainty estimation. The model structural uncertainty is high for simulating streamflow in the study area during low and high flow periods. Therefore, the study suggests applying
separate statistical error models in the likelihood function for representing the modelling
errors in low and high flow periods. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Hydrological model calibration, uncertainty analysis, second-order autoregressive model, likelihood function |