SWAT Literature Database for Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Title:Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin- scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin 
Authors:Ficklin, D.L., I.T. Stewart and E.P. Maurer 
Year:2013 
Journal:PLOS ONE 
Volume:8(8) (e71297) 
Pages:1-17 
Article ID: 
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0071297 
URL (non-DOI journals): 
Model:SWAT 
Broad Application Category:hydrologic only 
Primary Application Category:climate change 
Secondary Application Category:hydrologic assessment 
Watershed Description:190,000 km^2 Upper Colorado River; located in Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico, U.S. 
Calibration Summary: 
Validation Summary: 
General Comments: 
Abstract:In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6uC for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of 2100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of 2100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ,23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health. 
Language:English 
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