| Title: | Implications of complexity and uncertainty for integrated modelling and impact assessment in river basins |
| Authors: | Krysanova, V., F. Hatterman and F. Wechsung |
| Year: | 2007 |
| Journal: | Environmental Modelling & Software |
| Volume (Issue): | 22(5) |
| Pages: | 701-709 |
| Article ID: | |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.12.029 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWIM |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change assessment |
| Secondary Application Category: | hydrologic assessment |
| Watershed Description: | 100,000 km^2 portion of the Elbe River, located in eastern Germany. |
| Calibration Summary: | |
| Validation Summary: | 1981-88 E values for entire Elbe: daily = .89 monthly = .94 ---------------------------- 12 subwatershed E value ranges: daily = .61 - .79 monthly = .66 - .87 |
| General Comments: | Comprehensive hydrological and crop yield validation is reported; validation of nutrient cycling, pollutant load, and other components is also stated as having been performed but was not reported. Statiscally downscaled climate projections from the ECHAM4-OPYC3 GCM were then used to drive SWIM for future climate scenario impacts. Future impacts of the climate change scenario relative to historical or current conditions are reported for average river flows (2046-55 vs. 1960-90), groundwater recharge and surface runoff (2050-55 vs. 2000-05), and crop yields (2045-2055 vs. 1960-90). |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Integrated modelling; Ecohydrological model; Climate impact; Uncertainty; Elbe River |