| Title: | Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A regional climate model perspective |
| Authors: | Jha, M., Z. Pan, E.S. Takle and R. Gu |
| Year: | 2004 |
| Journal: | Journal of Geophysical Research |
| Volume (Issue): | 109 |
| Pages: | D09105 |
| Article ID: | |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2003JD003686 |
| URL (non-DOI journals): | |
| Model: | SWAT |
| Broad Application Category: | hydrologic only |
| Primary Application Category: | climate change |
| Secondary Application Category: | calibration, sensitivity, and/or uncertainty analysis |
| Watershed Description: | 431,000 km^2 Upper Mississippi River Basin (portion that drains to Grafton, Illinois), located in the north central U.S. |
| Calibration Summary: | 1989-97 annual r2/E = .91/.91 monthly r2/E = .75/.67 |
| Validation Summary: | 1980-88 annual r2/E = .89/.86 monthly r2/E = .70/.59 |
| General Comments: | A regional climate model (RegCM2) was used to downscale GCM (HadCM2) climate projections and a "reanalyzed climate" to SWAT. A sensitivity/error analysis was performed for both contemporary climate (1990-99) streamflows and the overall hydrologic balance; the largest error (18%) was found to have occurred with the GCM model (relative error contributions of SWAT and RegCM2 were found to be quite small). An analysis of a future climate (2040-49) indicated that a 50% increase in streamflow would occur at the assumed Upper Mississippi outlet at Grafton, Illinois. |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | climate change, streamflow, SWAT |