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Summary
The 2026 Long-Term Agricultural Outlook assesses projected trends in global agricultural production, consumption, trade, and land use from 2025 to 2050. Using a renewed modeling framework that extends the projection horizon to 25 years, the report evaluates structural developments for the following commodities:
• Field crops: Corn, Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat
• Oilseed products: Soybean meal and soybean oil
• Livestock products: Beef, broiler, and pork
• Biofuels: Biomass-based diesel and ethanol
Global agricultural markets are projected to expand steadily over the outlook period, with incremental adjustments rather than through abrupt structural shifts. Total area harvested for corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat increases by 5.9% from 742.2 to 785.9 million hectares (ha) globally. This additional area of 43.7 million ha is mostly allocated to wheat (13.1 million ha), corn (11.0 million ha), and rice (10.7 million ha).
Although the average increase in area harvested is at most 6.3% (soybeans and rice), production increases by at least 13.4% (wheat). Corn, soybeans, and rice production increase by 19.9%, 17.7%, and 16.5%, respectively. Corn production increases steadily alongside moderate expansion in harvested area, consistent with the gradual scaling of existing production systems. Wheat and rice exhibit balanced growth patterns, supported by continued demand associated with population growth, particularly in developing regions.
Soybean-derived products, that is, soybean meal and soybean oil, continue to dominate processing markets. Soybean meal maintains a key role in international feed markets increasing production by 17.9% over the projection period with the domestic consumption in China increasing by 19.2%. Soybean oil production increases by 18.1% over the projection period with some large consumers such as the United States, Brazil, and India seeing above average consumption increases of 12.4%, 32.1%, and 15.6%, respectively. The livestock sector reinforces these dynamics, with beef, broiler, and pork production and consumption concentrated in major regions including the United States, China, Brazil, and the European Union. China remains central to global pork markets by increasing domestic consumption and production by 10.5% and 10.5%, respectively. The United States maintains a leading role in pork and broiler production as well with an increase in production over the projection period by 15.9% and 11.4%, respectively.
Biofuel output expands over the projection period, with ethanol growing faster than biomass-based diesel. Global ethanol production over the 2025–2050 projection period increases by 26.2% from 117.7 to 148.5 billion liters. Growth is driven primarily by Brazil, where production rises by 66.7%, while the United States increases more moderately by 8.8%. Smaller production increases occur in India (15.8%) and China (6%), while production in the European Union declines slightly by 3.3%. Biomass-based diesel production increases by 13.4%, rising from 66.2 to 75.1 billion liters over the projection period. Production expansion is led by the United States (19.3%), Argentina (18.4%), and Brazil (18.1%), with smaller increases in the European Union (6.8%) and China (5.1%), and declines in Canada (4.5%) and India (2.9%).
Between 2025 and 2050, all major agricultural commodities experience sustained annual nominal price increases ranging from 0.9% (soybeans) to 1.5% (biomass-based diesel) associated with demand growth alongside supply expansion. Biomass-based diesel shows the strongest price growth, followed by ethanol (1.4%) and broiler meat (1.4%), while grains such as corn and wheat exhibit moderate increases (both 1.2%).
Overall, the projections describe a global agricultural system characterized by steady expansion driven primarily by macroeconomic fundamentals rather than rapid structural transformation. Growth occurs in the crops, livestock, and biofuels sectors simultaneously, resulting from rising population and income levels and evolving demand patterns across food, feed, and energy markets.