Abstract

This report summarizes the ARIMS analysis for the 1990 Farm Bill Conservation Initiatives Work Group. Three major tasks were completed. First, ARIMS was updated to reflect the short-run nature of possible 1990 farm bill policies. Specifically, ARIMS now incorporates a more differentiated set of land resources and crop production technology to match the requirements of the 1985 Food Security Act. Second, baseline solutions for 1990, 1995, and 2000 were estimated. The solutions included the conservation titles of the 1985 Food Security Act. The baselines differed in the specification of acres in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and in conservation compliance provisions. The 1990 baseline had a 40-million-acre CRP requirement; the 1995 baseline has a 40-million-CRP plus conservation compliance; and the 2000 baseline has an eight-million CRP with conservation compliance. Third, two alternative farm bill policy options were evaluated. The water quality option involved adding 10 million acres to the 40-million-acre CRP enrollment in the 1995 baseline. The selection of the 10 million acres was based on potential water quality impacts. The Trees for the U.S. program evaluated the conversion to tress of 37 million targeted acres of cropland and marginal pasture land.