Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by FAPRI Analysis

William H. Meyers, S. Devadoss, Bruna Angel
April 1989  [89-WP 42]

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Meyers, W.H., S. Devadoss, and B. Angel. 1989. "Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by FAPRI Analysis." Working paper 89-WP 42. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.


A commodity market outlook for wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans is evaluated for the period through the mid-1990s. The projections are based on assumptions about economic growth and agricultural policies that closely resemble current conditions. The projections include world market prices as well as supply, demand, and trade in these key commodities. The evaluation includes detailed breakouts of coarse grain and wheat production, consumption, and trade in major developing countries and regions.

Although grain price projections show stable or declining levels in real U.S. dollars, pressure on per capita consumption remains a problem, especially in Africa. Also, although some of the strong import growth in rapidly growing developing countries is a sign of dynamic economic performance, import growth in many poor countries is an unfortunate necessity brought about by meager growth in agricultural production relative to rapid growth in population.