China’s Accession to the WTO: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

Frank H. Fuller, John C. Beghin, Stephane De Cara, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Cheng Fang, Holger Matthey
June 2001  [01-WP 276]

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Fuller, F.H., J.C. Beghin, S. De Cara, J.F. Fabiosa, C. Fang, and H. Matthey. 2001. "China’s Accession to the WTO: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?" Working paper 01-WP 276. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.


The authors analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the FAPRI modeling framework. They incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased cotton imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.