Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model

Paul D. Mitchell, Walter Riedell
January 2000  [00-WP 235]

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Mitchell, P.D. and W. Riedell. 2000. "Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model." Working paper 00-WP 235. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.


Using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments, Mitchell and Riedell develop a complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm. To develop the life cycle model, Mitchell and Riedell use temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement to determine adult population dynamics and oviposition. They also use a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model to determine adult emergence. Mitchell and Riedell then evaluate the long-run performance of the model by using stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. After correcting for a bias in oviposition, they show that the model's predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data.