National Impacts of a Domestic Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease and African Swine Fever in the United States
Miguel Carriquiry, Amani Elobeid, Dermot J. Hayes
May 2023 [23-WP 650]
Carriquiry, M., A. Elobeid, and D.J. Hayes. 2023. "National Impacts of a Domestic Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease and African Swine Fever in the United States." Working paper 23-WP 650. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.
In March of 2023, Turkey detected a strain of Food and Mouth Disease (FMD) in the nation’s cattle. In May of 2022, an FMD outbreak was reported in Indonesian cattle; and, China is currently experiencing a surge in African Swine Fever (ASF), especially in the northern part of the country. This recent surge is estimated to have affected 10% of China’s hog population. ASF and FMD are two viral animal diseases that are highly contagious and deadly, and can have devastating effects on nations’ meat markets. Outbreaks of ASF and FMD are common in many parts of the world and they are extremely difficult to eradicate, which results in mass slaughter of infected animals. As a result, countries with infected livestock face prohibition of meat exports to importing countries even for meat from vaccinated animals (in the case of FMD). The United States has been successful in eradicating FMD, and ASF has not been found in the U.S. hog population. Classical swine fever (CSF) was eradicated in the U.S. hog herd in 1978. However, the mere threat of a disease outbreak can move markets. Case in point is the recent rumor of a potential outbreak of ASF in the United States that resulted in a significant drop in Chicago Mercantile Exchange lean hog futures.