April 14, 2026
A new CARD policy brief examines how the war in Iran could potentially impact the US corn industry and finds that across the United States, corn growers could face huge potential losses. The new study uses USDA and futures price estimates from prior to and after the war to construct an economic model and identify potential impacts. Among the findings, the study reveals that:
- US corn growers stand to lose $6 billion in revenues and $4 billion in additional costs for an approximate $6 billion loss in profits (producer surplus) and an additional $3 billion loss to workers in the US corn production industry.
- Additional losses to the US economy along the corn supply chain amount to about $5 billion in lost revenue and an added $3 billion in lost sales related to general spending in the rest of the economy.
- The total loss in sales related to the US corn supply chain amounts to about $13 billion, of which about $10 billion is a loss to US gross domestic product.
- Losses to the state of Iowa would be approximately 15-20% of these losses based on Iowa’s share of the US corn market.
The study "Potential Economic Impact on the US Corn Market from the 2026 Iran War" is available to read in full here.