Dermot Hayes, Keri Jacobs, Lee Schulz, and John Crespi

The upheaval wrought on the U.S. beef industry by the global COVID-19 pandemic carried with it several lessons that might help improve resiliency should there be a reoccurrence. First, the futures market for fed cattle fell well before cash prices, which sent a signal to market cattle early, and those who did so benefited. Second, the decline in futures anticipated the closure of slaughter plants and provided an opportunity to purchase and store beef primals in anticipation of future scarcity. Third, the beef industry has ways of slowing or stopping the pipeline of animals destined for feed yards and can “store” these animals in background feeding facilities or on pasture or rangeland. Producers who waited to sell feeder cattle benefited from higher feeder cattle prices once the processing facilities reopened. Fourth, cow slaughter plants responded to the pandemic and subsequent scarcity of labor much better than large fed-cattle plants. Cow plants are not as sophisticated and complex as fed-cattle plants. This relative simplicity may help explain the superior performance of these plants during the crisis. Sixth, the academic work on the value of building smaller plants as a response against concentration provides mixed results—these plants require more labor per animal and can be even more susceptible to labor scarcity. Seventh, the observed increase in boxed beef prices, even as fed cattle prices fell, demonstrates the risk-mitigating impact of producer ownership of downstream activities in the value chain.

Peter Orazem

Since July 2019, Iowa has lost 3.4% of its labor force and 3.3% of its employment. Nationally, employment is 3.7% below the July 2019 level, and so Iowa is doing slightly better on employment loss. However, the national labor force has fallen only 1.4% and in that way Iowa has performed much worse than the nation on labor force participation. That said, there has been a surge in Iowa’s labor force participation from June 2021 to July 2021 as the two-year decrease in labor force participation was -4.7% in June; and thus, there was a substantial improvement in Iowa’s labor force participation over the past month.

Ezra Butcher and Lee L. Schulz

In 2020, due to COVID-19, swine and pork markets in the United States experienced the worst disruption since 1998. We seek to inform discussions about marketing outcomes and possible structural changes by establishing performance baselines and providing definitions and descriptions for transactions between producers and packers. From 2010–2020, prices were highest in 2014 and lowest in 2020. We estimate simple models to see how changes in pork packing plant capacity utilization impact market hog prices by sale type. Results indicate that negotiated prices are the most sensitive to increases in utilization, decreasing 2.34% for every 1% increase in utilization. Negotiated sales volume has become incredibly thin, comprising only 1.52% of all hogs reported in 2020, compared with 14.65% back in 2002. There is a need, on occasion, to modify how data is published which directly contributes to the effectiveness of Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR). For example, other purchase arrangement sales increased in volume in 2016 as hogs raised without ractopamine or antibiotics were reclassified from swine or pork market formula sales. Sales based on the CME Lean Hog Index or Pork Cutout Index have been reclassified as swine or pork market formula sales. The correlation of pork carcass cutout values and negotiated hog prices has deteriorated from 0.919 in 2013 to 0.255 in 2020. Separating swine or pork market formula sales into swine formula sales and pork formula sales could improve price correlations. Summaries of price distributions provide a snapshot of marketing outcomes and aid in bringing further transparency to the marketplace.

Xi He, Edward J. Balistreri, Gyu Hyun Kim, Tao Xiong, and Wendong Zhang

This study introduces a database that can be used to analyze COVID-19’s impacts on China’s regional economies. This database contains various sectoral and regional economic outcomes. In the context of a general equilibrium trade model, we utilize the provincial and sectoral value-added and national trade series to estimate COVID-19’s province-by-month labor-productivity impacts. Compared to February 2019 levels, we find an average 37.9% decrease in labor productivity (equivalent to around 293 million jobs) and an average 20.8% decrease in welfare across provinces in February 2020. Both labor productivity and welfare have recovered quickly since April 2020. As of September 2020, average provincial labor productivity increased by 29.8% (equivalent to around 230 million jobs) and average welfare increased by 14.7% relative to their September 2019 levels.

Alfons Weersink, Mike von Massow, Nicholas Bannon, Jennifer Ifft, Josh Maples, Ken McEwan, Melissa G.S. McKendree, Charles Nicholson, Andrew Novakovic, Anusuya Rangarajan, Timothy Richards, Bradley Rickard, James Rude, Meagan Schipanski, Gary Schnitkey, Lee L. Schulz, Daniel Schuurman, Karen Schwartzkopf-Genswein, Mark Stephenson, Jada Thompson, and Katie Wood

Agri-food supply chains in North America have become remarkably efficient, supplying an unprecedented variety of items at the lowest possible cost. However, the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the near-total temporary loss of the foodservice distribution channel, exposed a vulnerability that many found surprising. Instead of continued shortages, however, the agri-food sector has since moved back to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those typically observed in years prior to the pandemic. Ironically, the specialization in most food supply chains designed for “just-in-time” delivery to specific customers with no reserve capacity, which led to the initial disruptions, may have also been responsible for its rapid rebound. A common theme in assessing the impacts across the six commodities examined is the growing importance of understanding the whole supply chain.

Dermot J. Hayes, Lee L. Schulz, Chad E. Hart, and Keri L. Jacobs

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) severely disrupted the U.S. food supply chain. In its initial aftermath, and as we contemplate a potential reignition, the food supply chain industries, researchers, and policy makers search for evidence, causes, and consequences. This article uses publicly available data on the pork and egg industries and a survey of the turkey industry as a first step to document the impact of COVID-19. Researchers can learn from the experiences in industries where disruptions evolve differently in the face of simultaneous supply- and demand-side shocks and that stem from differences in structures of the supply chains. This early evidence is used to motivate future research needs and highlight opportunities for industry investments in resiliency strategies.

Dermot Hayes and Lee L. Schulz

It is very challenging to project pork packing plant operating capacity and available market-ready supplies in the coming weeks. However, to provide context, this short report presents projections based upon currently available information.

Ritwik Banerjee, Joydeep Bhattacharya, and Priyama Majumdar

We define prediction bias as the systematic error arising from an incorrect prediction of the number of positive COVID cases x-weeks hence when presented with y-weeks of prior, actual data on the same. Our objective is to investigate the importance of an exponential-growth prediction bias (EGPB) in understanding why the COVID-19 outbreak has exploded. To that end, our goal is to document EGPB in the comprehension of disease data, study how it evolves as the epidemic progresses, and connect it with compliance of personal safety guidelines such as the use of face coverings and social distancing. We also investigate whether a behavioral nudge, cost less to implement, can significantly reduce EGPB.

Juan Carlos Cordoba, Marla Ripoll, and Siqiang Yang

Official recession figures ignore the costs associated with the loss of human life due to COVID-19. This paper constructs "full recession" measures that take into account the death toll. Key for the estimates are the number of dead, the individual's willingness to accept mortality risk, and society's willingness to accept inequality. Our model features tractable heterogeneity, constant relative risk aversion to mortality risk, and age-specific survival rates. Using an estimated death toll of 400 thousand people for the US during a year, and a baseline 10% recession, we find that the corresponding full recession is 26% on average across individuals, 17% for a median voter, 13% for a planner with mild aversion to inequality, and 19% for a planner with larger aversion. Regarding the overall cost of the pandemic, we find that individuals would be willing to pay, on average, 41% of one-year consumption to fully avoid the pre-lockdown 1.9 million deaths from COVID-19. A median voter would be willing to pay 23%, a social planner with mild aversion to inequality only 11%, while a log-planner would pay 73%.

Wendong Zhang and Minghao Li

U.S. farmers have suffered a lot in the past few years: The trade war with China, natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic have all resulted in substantial losses for many producers.

Farmers overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump in 2016 and remain critical to his reelection in many swing states such as Iowa and Minnesota. But given the impact of all that’s happened, will they stick with the president in the November elections?

Kunwon Ahn, Jun Yeong Lee, and John V. Winters

COVID-19 created major disruptions for young people including health concerns, school closures, reduced social opportunities, and a wilting economy. We examine the effect of COVID-19 on high school completion in the United States. We find that high school completion rates increased considerably in 2020 compared to previous years. We investigate various mechanisms and find that worse employment conditions were the driving force. The lower opportunity costs of schooling because of the pandemic recession encouraged more young people to complete high school. The pandemic created extensive problems in education, but fortunately it did not reduce overall high school completion rates.

Katherine Harris-Lagoudakis

In the 2019 fiscal year, one in four US residents participated in one of USDA’s 15 food assistance programs. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to unprecedented spikes in unemployment as well as widespread school closures, has exacerbated already limited access to resources and sources of food for food insecure households. Harris-Lagoudakis examines how the federal governmental has addressed the effects of the pandemic by altering food policy and making changes to the National School Lunch Program, School Breakfast Program, SNAP, and other USDA food assistance programs. She finds that the economic downturn and the emergency federal policy provisions have increased the number of SNAP participating households and the amount of benefits allotted to SNAP beneficiaries. However, the NSLP and SBP have faced significant challenges in providing free and reduced price meals to children at risk for food insecurity.

Lee L. Schulz and Chad E. Hart

The COVID-19 pandemic has lowered the prices of US agricultural products, forced significant shifts in supply chains, and disrupted markets. Earlier this year, the livestock sector was hit significantly hard as processing facilities dealt with large COVID-19 outbreaks that reduced the availability of labor and created backups in the supply chain. To explore the extent of recovery in the US agricultural sector, Schulz and Hart examine USDA’s most recent meat, corn, and soybean projections. The data show mixed results for US agricultural products—the prices and projections for some products are down, while others are up from the last outlook.

Jayson L. Lusk, Glynn T. Tonsor, and Lee L. Schulz

COVID-19-related disruptions led to a historic rise in the spread between livestock and wholesale meat prices. Concerns about concentration and allegations of anticompetitive behavior have led to several inquiries and civil suits by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Justice, with increases in price differentials serving as a focal point. This article notes the difference between price spreads and marketing margins, outlines corresponding economic theory, and describes the empirical evidence on wholesale meat and livestock price dynamics in the wake of COVID-19 disruptions. At one point during the pandemic, beef and pork packers were both operating at about 60% of the previous year's processing volume. We explore how such a massive supply shock would be expected to affect marketing margins even in the absence of anticompetitive behavior. Moreover, we document how margin measurements are critically sensitive to the selection of data and information utilized. Finally, we conclude with some discussion around policy proposals that would pit industry concentration against industry coordination and economies of scale.

Joydeep Bhattacharya, Shankha Chakraborty, and Xiumei Yu

This paper offers a parsimonious, rational-choice model to study the effect of pre-existing inequalities on the transmission of COVID-19. Agents decide whether to "go out" (or self-quarantine) and, if so, whether to wear protection such as masks. Three elements distinguish the model from existing work. First, non-symptomatic agents do not know if they are infected. Second, some of these agents unknowingly transmit infections. Third, we permit two-sided prevention via the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions: the probability of a person catching the virus from another depends on protection choices made by each. We find that a mean-preserving increase in pre-existing income inequality unambiguously increases the equilibrium proportion of unprotected, socializing agents and may increase or decrease the proportion who self-quarantine. Strikingly, while higher pre-COVID inequality may or may not raise the overall risk of infection, it increases the risk of disease in social interactions.

Seung Jin Cho, Jun Yeong Lee, and John V. Winters

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is causing massive economic disruptions in the United States. Unemployment has hit record levels as businesses nationwide grapple with both mandatory and voluntary closures and dwindling patronage. However, certain factors, such as population density, have led to some parts of the country seeing higher unemployment levels. Cho, Lee, and Winters examine recent IPUMS data to find differences in unemployment levels between urban and rural areas and across US Bureau of Economic Activity regions and find that rural areas are seeing lower unemployment rates than urban areas, and the Plains region is seeing lower unemployment levels than areas than other USBEA regions.

Lee L. Schulz and Chad E. Hart

Just like other sectors of the economy, the US agricultural sector has seen an economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As various economic sectors resume activity, businesses are adjusting to living with the virus. Agricultural producers and USDA are reevaluating commodity markets and changing outlooks for the rest of the year. Schulz and Hart compare USDA’s meat, corn, and soybean projections from January 2020 with the most recent update, released in mid-June 2020, and find that the outlook changes are much more concentrated on prices than production.

Seung Jin Cho, Jun Yeong Lee, and John V. Winters

We examine effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment losses across metropolitan area status and population size. Non-metropolitan and metropolitan areas of all sizes experienced significant employment losses, but the impacts are much larger in large metropolitan areas. Employment losses manifest as increased unemployment, labor force withdrawal, and temporary absence from work. We examine the role of individual and local area characteristics in explaining differing employment losses across metropolitan status and size. The local COVID-19 infection rate is a major driver of differences across MSA size. Industry mix and employment density also matter. The pandemic significantly altered urban economic activity.

Seung Jin Cho, Jun Yeong Lee, and John V. Winters

Food production and distribution is essential for human well-being, but the food sector has experienced a number of difficulties maintaining worker health and productivity during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine employment status changes of persons recently employed in the U.S. food sector with a focus on food manufacturing and grocery stores. We find that the pandemic significantly reduced the probability of continued active employment for previous workers in both food manufacturing and grocery stores. Individual-level analysis confirms that the COVID-19 infection rate in an individual’s local labor market is a strong and significant factor. The employment changes are not just due to unemployment during facility closures. Previous workers increasingly exit the labor force as the severity of the COVID-19 infection rate in their local area worsens. The considerable risk of infection drives many previous food sector workers to stop working altogether. Maintaining worker health and safety is essential for a stable food supply.

Seung Jin Cho and John V. Winters

COVID-19 substantially decreased employment, but the effects vary among demographic and socioeconomic groups. We document the employment losses in April 2020 across various groups using the U.S. Current Population Survey. The unemployment rate understates employment losses. We focus on the percentage of the civilian population that is employed and at work. Young persons experienced the largest employment losses. Individuals with less education and lower family income experienced much larger employment losses than their more educated and higher income counterparts. Hispanics and blacks were more adversely affected than whites.

Xi He, Dermot J. Hayes, and Wendong Zhang

The authors examine China’s committed agricultural purchases under the phase one trade deal and whether it can fulfill those commitments due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They review China’s actual agricultural imports from the United States and other countries up to the first quarter of 2020 and analyze trade deal obligations China must still meet by the end of 2020. They use prior seasonal patterns and US-China price differentials to predict China’s agricultural imports from the United States in 2020. They examine total agricultural and related products with special focus on corn, soybeans, cotton, sorghum, pork, and beef.

Syed Hasan, Attique Rehman, and Wendong Zhang

In this article, we examine the feasibility of working and studying from home in Pakistan. We take advantage of the 2018–19 Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey, released only weeks ago. PSLM is a nationally representative household survey with extensive information on employment outcomes, children’s educational attainment, internet and TV access information, and hand-washing place. Following Dingel and Neiman (2020)’s approach, we define the feasibility of jobs that can be done from home for both urban and rural districts. We also investigate the possibilities for students to study from home via TV or internet. We find that only 10% of jobs in Pakistan can be done from home, and rates are even lower for rural residents, as so many of Pakistan’s workers are in low-skill, low-paying service industries and cannot work from home. Our results also highlight the homeschooling challenges Pakistan’s students face, given low rates of access to TV and the internet. Pre-existing inequalities in which many rural female students already lack educational opportunities will further compound these diffculties. Our results highlight the need for state’s financial support for vulnerable workers and expanded internet access for both teaching and effective job performance.

Ritwik Banerjee, Joydeep Bhattacharya, and Priyama Majumdar

This study uses a unique, Amazon MTurk-based global experiment to investigate the importance of an exponential-growth prediction bias (EGPB) in understanding why the COVID-19 outbreak has exploded and finds that the “degree of convexity” reflected in the predicted path of the disease is significantly and substantially lower than the actual path.

Chad E. Hart, Dermot J. Hayes, Keri L. Jacobs, Lee L. Schulz, and John M. Crespi

This study estimates the COVID-19 outbreak’s revenue impacts on some of Iowa’s largest agricultural industries, and finds overall annual damage of roughly $788 million for corn, $213 million for soybean, over $2.5 billion for ethanol production losses and $347 million in losses due to falling ethanol prices, $658 million for fed cattle, $34 million for calves and feeder cattle, and $2.1 billion for hogs.

Lee L. Schulz

Livestock Outlook: Supplies of beef and other meat are large and rising as COVID-19 threatens demand.

Wendong Zhang and Tao Xiong

The novel coronavirus has shocked the world’s economies.

I'm looking for a quick and dirty way to total up the economic costs of Covid-19. Does it make sense to add (1) expected 2020 GDP losses (about $1.6T) to (2) the total cost of the federal Covid-19 response bills (assume for now that it's about $8T??) to get $9.6T at a minimum? In totaling up the cost of the Federal intervention, should we subtract from $8T the additional GDP losses that would have occurred if the stimulus spending had not been made? Also, why can't I find this kind of analysis online? Where should I be looking?

Read Dr. Harris-Lagoudakis’s answer

With this global and U. S. crisis because of the coronavirus what is the possibility of the catastrophic devaluation of the dollar so that my buying power is greatly reduced?

Read Dr. Orazem’s answer

In light of the current pandemic, and constant feuding about what it means for our economy, I wanted to ask what the best long term solution is for reopening the United States economy. Is it in the best interest of our economy to reopen soon, losing lives, or is minimizing the death in the long term a better economic strategy?

Read Dr. Bhattacharya’s answer

My name is Tracy Bergmann, I am the Chief Examiner for the Iowa Division of Banking. We supervise Iowa state chartered banks in Iowa. We continue to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on the institutions we regulate, their customers, and the customers they serve. Agriculture has been on our radar for sometime now, but we are trying to get more detailed data on how much agricultural debt is in Iowa, specifically what is the breakdown between Ag Operating, Livestock debt, Term debt, and Real Estate debt./p>

We traditionally get our data from two sources: 1) call report filed by banks quarterly which does not go into enough detail to get the information that we want; and 2) the banks themselves when we conduct an examination. Banks generally have concentration reports that will break down debt on many different levels; however, this doesn't give us aggregated point in time data.

I have been looking at the ISU, Ohio State University, and USDA websites in an attempt to get the data we are looking for, but cannot find it. I find news reports or research that mentions these sources, but I can't get to the raw data we are looking for. When I do find data that is close to what we want, it is a couple years old.

Do you have any suggestions on where we can find this data? We appreciate any assistance you are able to give, as we monitor the impact of COVID-19, particularly in the ag sector. Thank you!

Tracy Bergmann

Read Dr. Plastina’s answer

Hello, in the article China confident of meeting 2020 fiscal targets: Finance Minister, it says China has been implementing tax and fee cuts, and "issued 100 billion yuan (about 14.1 billion U.S. dollars) of special government bonds for COVID-19 control measures in a bid to support local infrastructure construction and epidemic prevention and control". In what ways with implementing tax and fee cuts help china's recovery? And if selling government bonds are a contractionary monetary policy, what will this do, other than fund fiscal objectives, to help a recovering economy? Why sell bonds instead of borrow more?

Read Dr. Wang’s answer

Of course, as you know, the entire world has been massively affected by the coronavirus, including the world's economies. Recession will be a huge problem for many countries, even the richer countries such as the US and the UK. So my, perhaps ignorant question, as a 15 year old is - since every country will be negatively impacted by the virus, what would happen if the entire world, or close to it were to decide to just lower the price of everything, the price of buying everything, manufacturing everything, and everyone's salaries are lower too in comparison. Would that solve anything? As after all, the world's economic figures are just numbers, but could cause so much harm to everything and everyone in that country.

Read Dr. Rosenbloom’s answer

I am 16 years old and I want to start a project that makes yarn whales to give to people in the hospital during this time. If it successful and keeps momentum, I want to continue this even after the COVID-19 has subsided. A problem though, is that I have no idea where to start, what kind of permission I need from who, or anything like that. I would love some pointers and help on what to do. I really thank you for reading and answering my question. Stay strong :)

Read Professor Kimle’s answer

What could cause live cattle prices, that is the price paid for cattle on the hoof, to plummet, suddenly, when numbers have not increased substantially, (we were in a herd building mode following a drought), but boxed prices are at an all time high. Packers are receiving huge net profits, ($1300 per head)while ranchers are losing money. ($350 per head). Cattle-Fax and other statistics gathering reporting and marketing services predicted that cattle prices would remain high throughout the herd rebuilding phase of the cattle cycle, about 3 years. But, suddenly, and without warning, cattle prices crashed, August 2015, There was not a crash in the general economy. Live cattle are traded on the futures market, Chicago Board of Exchange. The U.S. does engage in exporting and importing of beef. Secondly, because of a fire in a processing plant, and the COVID19 pandemic, the problems in the cattle industry have come to the attention of the federal govt. because of food security issues.

What measures can be taken to keep the cattle industry in the U.S. from imploding? What can prevent vertical integration from further occurring? How can the American farmers and ranchers be kept from bankruptcy, (without gov’t subsidies or handouts) making sure that private ownership of land persists? What kind of market manipulation could cause all this?

Read Dr. Schulz’s answer

What would the impact of a Congressional or Presidential order for a “financial time out” until the virus is brought under control? This would be a closure of the stock market and suspension of all debt and rent. This would be far cheaper than throwing trillions of borrowed dollars at everyone and everything! I believe we are working on the wrong part of the “equation.” People would only have to worry about food, water, and utilities. This is a much smaller problem to solve! When the virus is brought under control, the “time out” can be canceled and the economy can be brought back to life. People will have confidence, in the meantime, that their life savings isn’t going to melt down. It is absurd to allow this virus to destroy our economy! It doesn’t have to!

Read Dr. Orazem’s answer

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• https://kiwaradio.com/ag-news/trump-administration-releasing-another-round-of-federal-farm-aid/

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• http://www.thebeefsite.com/news/55343/new-iowa-state-web-hub-lets-users-track-covid19s-economic-impacts-in-the-us/
• https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/130556
• https://www.adelnews.com/news/20200520/isu-ag-and-economic-departments-create-covid-19-data-based-webpage-for-iowa-markets
• https://www.rfdtv.com/story/42160683/iowa-state-university-releases-new-tool-to-track-ag-economy-amid-coronavirus-pandemic
• https://www.morningagclips.com/resources-to-track-covid-19s-economic-impacts/
• https://advancedbiofuelsusa.info/new-iowa-state-web-hub-offers-resources-to-track-covid-19s-economic-impacts/
• https://www.agweek.com/business/agriculture/6535962-Iowa-State-tool-estimates-COVID-19s-impact-on-ag

• https://newsbrig.com/as-meat-processing-factories-struggle-to-reopen-amid-coronavirus-outbreaks-govt-documents-warn-of-shortages-by-the-end-of-may/12975/

• https://www.kmuw.org/post/outlook-corn-and-soybeans-isn-t-great-it-could-have-been-worse

• https://www.wftv.com/news/us-meat-exports/KDLQYNNLXTLSI7UPK6DMXICJ24/
• https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/05/13/meat-exports-surge-as-industry-struggles-to-meet-us-demand/
• https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/nation-and-world/us-meat-exports-surge-even-as-processing-industry-struggles-to-meet-domestic-demand-20200513
• https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2020/05/14/us-meat-exports-surge-industry-struggles-meet-demand/5192731002/
• https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2020/may/14/meat-exports-surge-despite-struggle-202/

• https://kfab.iheart.com/content/2020-05-13-covid-19-supply-demand-issues-push-largest-grocery-price-hike-since-1970/

• https://nebraska.tv/news/ntvs-grow/fischer-joins-bipartisan-group-seeking-support-for-pork-producers
• https://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/business/10-million-hogs-nowhere-go
• https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-millions-hogs-euthanized-supply-chain

• https://newsus.app/youre-losing-money-everywhere-iowa-farmers-try-to-hang-on-through-pandemic-crisis/

• https://kfab.iheart.com/content/2020-05-05-covid-restricts-meat-supply-even-in-pork-rich-iowa/

• https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/130189

• https://bit.ly/2KT74fD
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• https://www.houmatoday.com/news/20200502/coronavirus-is-changing-way-world-feeds-itself

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